Why gas and diesel prices rose in 2026
A crude oil shock in March, constrained shipping lanes, scarce distillates and squeezed retail margins: what EIA’s data show.
This week: diesel $6.127, regular $3.995; diesel is $2.290 above a year ago (EIA, Nov 9, 2026).
U.S. fuel prices began 2026 low. Regular gasoline had averaged $3.10 a gallon in 2025, its third straight annual decline, and on-highway diesel started January below $3.50. Then the market turned in a single week.
March: a crude oil shock
Brent crude jumped after military action began in the Middle East. EIA’s March Short-Term Energy Outlook noted that Brent settled at $94 a barrel on March 9, about 50% above where it started the year. EIA’s weekly U.S. diesel average went from $3.897 on March 2 to $4.859 on March 9, a jump of nearly a dollar in one week, and kept climbing into April.
Summer and fall: supply routes stayed tight
Through the summer EIA repeatedly raised its price forecasts as flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait stayed constrained. Brent averaged $114 a barrel in September, according to EIA’s October outlook, and the U.S. diesel average passed $6.50 in late September.
Why diesel rose more than gasoline
- Distillates were scarce worldwide. Diesel, heating oil and jet fuel come from the same part of the barrel and are traded globally; the disruption hit them hardest.
- Refiners chased distillate margins. EIA reported that U.S. refineries shifted output away from gasoline toward diesel and jet fuel in 2026 because distillate margins were so high.
- Inventories ran low. EIA forecast East Coast distillate stocks to stay 20% to 30% below their five-year average through the 2026–27 winter, which matters for heating oil as well as trucking.
Why pump prices may lag on the way down
EIA noted that retail and distribution margins were squeezed in 2026 as wholesale prices rose faster than stations could pass them on. It expects those margins to recover in 2027, which means lower wholesale prices will not reach the pump immediately — the pattern known as rockets and feathers.
What EIA expects next
EIA’s October 2026 outlook put the 2026 averages at $3.91 for gasoline and $5.19 for diesel, easing to $3.56 and $4.49 in 2027, with diesel above $4 through 2027. The current figures are on our forecast page, which updates when EIA publishes a new edition; week-by-week moves are on the diesel and gasoline pages and the long view is in the price history since 1992.
Sources: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (March, September and October 2026), EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, EIA Today in Energy (November 5, 2026).