Analysis 5 min read · updated Nov 9, 2026
The diesel crack spread: an early signal for pump prices
What refiners earn on a gallon of diesel, how we calculate it, and why it leads retail.
A crack spread is the difference between the price of a refined product and the crude oil it comes from. For diesel, we take the EIA weekly New York Harbor ultra-low-sulfur diesel spot price and subtract the Brent crude price converted to dollars per gallon (divided by 42).
When the spread is wide, refiners are paid well to make diesel, usually because inventories are tight. Retail prices tend to follow wholesale moves with a lag of one to three weeks, so a sharp change in the spread is an early hint of what the pump will do. It is a signal, not a forecast.
See the weekly series on the diesel analytics page.